Q&A #1: Is John Tierney’s Time Up?

Welcome to Ask Me Anything Day! First question comes from “Andrew Carden,” who asks:

What are the odds John Tierney prevails again in 2014, both in the primary and general?

I’m kind of stumped on this at the moment. On the one hand, the North Shore congressman has now survived two elections since the family gambling-business scandal broke, and there hasn’t been any additional news on it since the 2012 election, so you would think the trouble has passed. On the other hand, he kind of got lucky in 2012—the national Republicans overplayed their hand, and heavy Democratic turnout for President Obama and Elizabeth Warren helped a lot—and the generally Independent/Republican leanings of the district are likely to be more evident in the mid-term year (especially with Swampscott’s own topping the GOP gubernatorial ticket).

Seth Moulton certainly looks like a serious primary challenger to me, and I always like to see Marisa DeFranco stumping, but my guess is that Tierney gets through that phase. The final, a rematch with Richard Tisei, is tougher to predict, but I give Tisei the edge at this early stage.

Odds? I’ll say 40% chance Tierney gets another term in office.

Read more from today’s Ask Bernstein Anything >>

  • Tom Lang

    As one who supported Tisei in his run as Lt. Gov, the more and more I get to understand the man, the less and less I like him.

  • Rafael Rodriguez

    As a Lynn resident who is struggling to find work, I cannot vote for Tierney as he hasn’t done anythig to improve our jobs or local economy.

  • Brandon Chapman

    Richard Tisei came within one percentage point in a heavily Democratic year in 2012. Voters of the district have gotten to know him better and realize that Congressman Tierney’s charges of Tisei being a right wing extremist are laughable. I for one am ready for a change in the 6th.

  • Cedric Colbert

    I turn 18 in March, so this will be the first election I ever vote in. Like most kids my age, I’m ready for a new congressman in the sixth district. Tierney’s been in D.C. as long as I’ve been alive, yet he has barely accomplished anything.