Q&A #6: 2014 Races, My View
“Pete Christopher” asks:
What (if anything) from the most recent insiders poll do you disagree with most?
Well, I am not calling them idiots this time, if that’s what you’re wondering.
I know a lot of people think I’m crazy for this, but I think Charlie Baker is a better than 50 percent chance to win next Novemberâ€”maybe 55 percent. I think the insiders have the gubernatorial primary more or less right. I think there will likely be another serious Democratic attorney general candidate, and I’m not sure I would make Warren Tolman quite as strong a candidate as the insiders think.
Also, I think a great deal depends upon whether Ayanna Pressley decides that she has the heart and desire to spend a year shaking hands with people in places like Athol and Tewksbury and Attleboro. If the answer is yesâ€”that is, if she takes the advice that certain Kerry people have been putting in her ear all year and runs for Lieutenant Governorâ€”then the whole tenor of the cycle changes. All of a sudden there’s a superstar woman who could, frankly, make Martha Coakley feel a little less necessary from a gender perspective. Pressley could restore the kind of general-election gender voting gap that Elizabeth Warren got, which I suspect Baker and a female LG pick will otherwise make headway against. You’ve got the potential for a whole different energy to the Democratic ticket than I currently picture. There’s also the potential for some real backlash if Pressley turns out to be a high-profile disaster, either in the primary or general election.
I realize that’s a lot that I’m putting on a potential LG candidateâ€”one by no means assured of even winning the primary. But I’m just sayin’.
Source URL: http://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/blog/2013/11/22/qa-6-2014-races-view/