Martha Coakley and the Challengers, In Three Scenarios

The answer to question 3 in today’s Ask Bernstein Anything day.

“Jb321″ asks:

Is there any chance that one of the democratic candidates for Gov who are not named Coakley or Grossman end up winning? Also, what do Grossman’s odds look like currently?

Three scenarios:

1. Martha Coakley coasts through the primary without screwing it up.

2. Steve Grossman emerges over the summer as the only serious challenger to Coakley, and in the stretch run, she screws it up and hands the primary to him.

3. Coakley screws it up before Grossman solidifies himself as the only serious challenger, giving Don Berwick or Juliette Kayyem the opportunity to gain traction and win the primary.

The odds of each scenario depend on how likely you think it is that Coakley will screw it up, and how quickly.

 

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