What’s Going to Happen in the State Senate Race?

The answer to question 5 in today’s Ask Bernstein Anything day.

More predictifyin’. “tgm” asks:

Who will be the next Senator from 5th Middlesex, Clark’s old seat?

“TNT” wants to know:

Will Eric Lesser be a state senator?

The race to succeed newly crowned congresswoman Katherine Clark is a good one, getting absolutely no attention (as was true of the congressional race itself). The narrative I’m hearing is this: Chris Fallon started with the advantage, but Jason Lewis has the momentum and could win the March 4 primary if Anthony Guardia doesn’t pull away too many votes on the left. Truth is, this will probably come down to whether Fallon or Lewis has the operation to get some bodies to the polls; this race feels Lewis-y to me right now, but I think Fallon’s Malden vote will keep it very close.

Republican Monica Medeiros won’t likely beat the Democrat—but if she runs a good race, she could threaten in a fall rematch in the right circumstances. I’m interested to see how she does.

As for certified Friend-of-Barack Lesser, I wouldn’t start affixing his name to a seat in the chamber just yet. There’s a good crop of candidates jumping into that Candaras-replacement pool (although I’ll bet a couple jump back out in time), so while he’ll start with some real advantages, he’ll need to prove himself to voters who care more about what you’ve done for the neighborhood than what you’ve done for David Axelrod.

 

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