The Delegates Are High on Steve Grossman

According to a new survey.

Take this with a large grain of salt because it is not a scientific poll. But, a survey of delegates to the upcoming Massachusetts Democratic convention suggests that Steve Grossman is poised to lead the voting for governor, with Don Berwick and Martha Coakley running even with each other, with enough support to qualify for the September primary ballot.

Joe Avellone and Juliette Kayyem trail, according to these results, and might be hard-pressed to receive the necessary 15 percent.

The survey, conducted by interactive voice response (IVR)—a robo-poll—on behalf of a candidate in a different primary contest, received responses from 662 delegates, or more than 10 percent. There is no assurance, however, that the respondents are representative of the entire group.

If accurate, the results show that Grossman, although the choice of about a third of the respondents, is well short of the 50 percent he would need to win a first-ballot endorsement from the party. He could reach that level on subsequent ballots.

Berwick, essentially tied with Coakley in the survey at 20 percent, could easily finish second if he can win over a good share of the undecided delegates.

Kayyem, on the other hand, appears to be short of where she needs to be, at just under 10 percent. With only 11 percent undecided according to this survey, she would be unlikely to add enough by swaying them at the June 14 convention. Avellone is not far behind her, at 7 percent.

All of those numbers, even if an accurate reflection of delegates’ current thinking, might change in the brief amount of time remaining. People closely involved with Democratic party politics have told me recently that many delegates’ preferences seem soft, and very much open to persuasion as they pay closer attention in the final run-up to the convention.

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  • Laura Henze Russell

    As a delegate, I am waiting to see which candidate – and which candidates from other parties – goes farthest in addressing the issues and actions in the People’s Health Pledge, to be released next week. Candidates have received links to an Issue Brief: For Good Health, Integrated Whole Body Care, and Making Chronic Diseases History. It is posted at Hidden River Health Challenge is circulating a Draft Pledge to potential cosponsors.

    • Johnny Come-Lately

      Do you think it would matter who will win in the general?
      I want to keep the corner office blue.

      Berwick isn’t going to do that. Grossman is excellent, but hasn’t built the kind of name recognition needed. He’s only popular within small circles of the Mass Dems. And I’ll be at the Convention. But I’m realistic about what is needed.

      We have Dems attacking Dems. It’s not going to be a good thing for the general election.

      • Laura Henze Russell

        This is what primaries are all about. I want the best person in the corner office. Time will tell who it is. None of the Democratic candidates is a shoe-in given the strength of others who will be on the ballot.

  • Susan Truitt

    I do non-stop delegate calling these days. I’m calling folks who are not already listed as for my candidate — Juliette Kayyem. I hear lots about a variety of candidates, I make some scores for Juliette, and I almost never hear about Berwick. So that’s another worm’s eye view. My “poll” is about as reliable as the one mentioned here for guessing what the overall outcome will be.

  • Laura Henze Russell

    One always wonders about the potential for coalitions among candidates. The trailing two, combined, contend for second place.

  • NadineDeightonrif

    Josiah .
    although Jacqueline `s stori is surprising, last week I bought themselves a
    Chrysler from having made $5060 thiss month and-in excess of, 10/k last-month .
    it’s realy the easiest-work I have ever done . I started this 4 months ago and
    pretty much straight away was bringin in at least $78 per-hour . why not look
    here C­a­s­h­d­u­t­i­e­s­.­C­O­M­

  • Bluefalcon

    Boring. We knew Grossman was way ahead already. What’s going on in the downballot races?

  • Johnny Come-Lately

    She needs to do something liberal if she wants to win the primary and in the general.