Coakley and Grossman One-On-One?

The answer to today’s first ‘Ask Me Anything’ question.

Happy “Ask Me Anything Day”! First question comes from “Andrew Carden,” who asks:

…we’re less than a month out from the Dem convention. What are the odds Grossman and Coakley are the only two contenders to garner the necessary 15 percent support?

Still below 50/50, but growing.

A few months ago, I would have made it a real longshot for Attorney General Martha Coakley and Treasurer Steve Grossman to be the only two Democrats on the primary ballot. Both Don Berwick and Juliette Kayyem, and to a lesser extent Joe Avellone, have legit operations, a significant number of sure-thing delegates (who ran specifically for that candidate), and a basis of appeal to undecided delegates, many of whom like underdogs and are inclined to help a second-tier candidate on the cusp.

All of that is still true. But as I wrote a couple of weeks ago, both Coakley and Grossman seem to be aggressively, and successfully, pursuing delegates to an extent that simply makes the math harder for the others. And Coakley just added endorsements from Planned Parenthood, MassEquality, and SEIU 1199. Those aren’t huge bloc-moving endorsements, but they do mean a lot to delegates.

Berwick picked up endorsements from some progressives, and has seen an uptick in fundraising. And Kayyem has an enthusiastic core of supporters. (And there are still rumors that Grossman might try to help her onto the ballot, although I remain highly skeptical.)

So, I’d say maybe a one-in-four or one-in-three chance of just the two getting through, but the trend is in that direction—for the moment.


< < Read more from today’s Ask Bernstein Anything.