Pats Preview: Week 11

1193080546Some NFL analysts study trends. Others study stats. Our man, Gonz, does neither. But that won’t stop him from breaking down each week’s Patriots’ game. His picks are for amusement purposes only, since last year he dropped a small fortune to the world’s worst bookie.

The bye week came at just the right time — not so much for the Pats as for me. I needed the rest. But I’m back and refreshed and ready to let you in on a secret:

The Patriots are good.

Shhh. Keep that quiet.

You likely haven’t noticed, but they’ve destroyed eight of their opponents en route to a sterling 9-0 record. (In the other game, they played terribly against the Colts and still won). Ah, but that’s not even the crazy part. The truly amazing element here is that not only are the Pats beating up the NFL, they’re whipping a much tougher foe — Vegas.

Just how good have the Patriots been against the oddsmakers? They’re an incredible 8-1 against the spread this season. That feat is even more astonishing when you consider that they’ve been favored in every game (and will likely be favored the rest of the way, as well). And in four of those games the Pats were favored by 14 points or more. Yikes. Those are huge point spreads usually reserved for college games. Seriously, you just don’t see those kinds of numbers in the NFL.

Here’s proof:

“You just don’t see those kinds of numbers in the NFL,” said John Avello, who runs the sports book at the Wynn Las Vegas.


This weekend, New England plays at Buffalo — a team that has won four games in a row. And yet the Pats are favored by 16. That’s a gigantic spread for a visiting team, but I don’t know a bookie anywhere who feels good about it. Because the Pats are a “public team” — that is, a club that the general public likes to bet on — most of the action figures to be on New England to cover the line. Which means bookies across the country will be rooting for the Bills on Sunday night. Lucky them.

To get a sense of how truly desperate bookies have become, I had a friend of mine call his guy. Let’s call my friend… Juan. So Juan phoned his bookie and said “dude, are you totally sweating Sunday’s Pats game?” To which the bookie said “dude, don’t you owe me your next paycheck?”

Pobre Juan.

The Pick: Juan smacks down his bookie, and the Pats smack down the Bills. It’s win-win! New England 48, Buffalo 21.