Q&A #4: Predictions on the City Council Races

The answer to today's fourth Ask Bernstein Anything question.

“Kevin” asks:

Other than D5, are there going to be any competitive City Council races in the general election? It seems like there is such a large gap between 4th and 5th in the at-large race for anything to be competitive.

“Guest” asks:

What’s your predictions for each Boston district city council race?

Well, I’m not sure that Jean-Claude Sanon can make D5 competitive, but it’s worth watching. The super-competitive race is between incumbent Bill Linehan and Suzanne Lee in the 2nd District. I think Lee’s going to win that, but it’s bound to be close either way—and the lack of a mayoral finalist who really enthuses progressives and minorities doesn’t help her.

I know everyone’s assuming that Josh Zakim will walk away with the other open district seat over Michael Nichols, but keep it on your radar.

And while there’s not much suspense in the at-large top four, bear in mind that the fifth-place finisher inherits any opening if, say, Ayanna Pressley or Stephen Murphy gets an appointment from the new mayor in 2014 or the new governor in 2015. So, the order from five to eight could matter—and appears to be very much up for grabs.

Predictions? The new Council will be Ayanna Pressley, Michael Flaherty, Michelle Wu, Stephen Murphy, Sal LaMattina, Suzanne Lee, Frank Baker, Charles Yancey, Tim McCarthy, Matt O’Malley, Tito Jackson, Josh Zakim, and Mark Ciommo.

Or, for those keeping count: five white Irish-American guys, two Italian-American guys, two African-American guys, one Jewish guy, two Asian-American gals, and one African-American woman.


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